Installed base by technology 2020 and forecast 2025 – supplier vs. buyer
Suppliers expect and annual growth of 28% of the installed base
The suppliers of polymer AM systems expect a strong growth of system sales in the coming 5 years. For 2025 a worldwide installed base of more than 450,000 industrial polymer AM systems is projected. This number is pushed especially by the high expectations of the Area-wise Vat Polymerization technology. The installed base is projected to be the fastest growing technology with regards to the established technologies. The CAGR of 34 % is expected to arrive at an installed base of 121,373 systems in 2025.
The upcoming technologies in Pellet Based Material Extrusion and Others are the only technologies with a higher expected growth. Pellet Based ME, for example, is expected to increase the number of installed systems by more than factor 9. However, its installed base is rather low today. Other technologies are also predicted to increase their share with a CAGR of 57 %.
According to the system suppliers the development of the technology distribution on the market is not expected to change significantly over the next 5 years. While PBF technologies are forecast to slightly increase their share of the installed base until 2025, Filament Based Material Extrusion will reduce its share from 40 % to 35 %.
This development can be explained by the higher expected growth rates of the former technology. Especially the newly offered low priced PBF systems will make this technology make accessible and increase the installed base. With an expected CAGR of 40 % regarding the installed base, PBF technology is expected achieve largest growth compared to the other established technologies. The installed base of PBF systems is projected to account for roughly 45,000 units in 2025 – the smallest share of the established technologies.
However, this supplier expectation is not shared by the buyers. While they see a lower demand regarding PBF systems, they expect to increase their investments in Filament Based Material Extrusion systems. Two developments on the market speak for this. Firstly, the new lower priced PBF system are yet to prove their capabilities within industrial settings. Secondly, more and more deviations of the Material Extrusion technology are creating yet unknown use cases for the buyer. This might account for the differences between the expectations.
Overall, AMPOWER believes, that the polymer Additive Manufacturing market can expect a significantly greater adoption in industrial production. The COVID-19 pandemic may have a rather positive than negative long-term effect due the awareness that was created. Companies have considered AM during the crisis to mitigate the risks of single source supply chains. Despite the limits AM and its parts have, it can become a flexible alternative for some selected applications. The key is, as always with AM, to find the right application where AM makes sense. Additionally, upcoming technologies, which are not yet production ready, will further mature the market in the future.